A Flawed System (part 1 of 2)
As I’m writing this, an advertisement for Barack Obama has just aired on the television, condemning the fiscal policies employed by Mitt Romney during his tenure as Governor of Massachusetts. The commercial uses visual aids like bar graphs and pie charts to compare the state of the economy before Romney as well as under his leadership. The advertisement cites web sites such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics as the source of their data. Can you trust the data that you read though? Surely, a government entity like the Bureau of Labor Statistics would be above the kind of corruption that cynical Americans believe to be commonplace in the daily activities of government officials, right? The truth is that we have altered different statistical models at different times in our history to skew the numbers so that they don’t look as bad as they really are.
How does the Bureau of Labor Statistics gather its data? The short answer is that they use surveys, and because they use surveys a great deal, there is an inherent flaw in employing this method of data collection. First, people are not completely honest about how much they earn. It can be a source of pride or shame for some people, so disclosing that kind of information is a sensitive subject. Second, when you do a survey, your sample size has to be highly randomized to get an accurate sampling of the population. Third, your sample size has to be large enough to extrapolate and make a generalization regarding the remaining population. The Bureau of Labor Statistics acknowledges their payroll survey’s confidence interval is suspect due to the admitted lack of randomization and built-in bias. Recently, the BLS has adjusted its bias factor. Instead of merely adding 150,000 jobs per month to account for new job creation and no job loss, the BLS have now accounted for that possibility and numbers have ranged from -321,000 to +270,000 in past years (Williams, 2004).
In order to better understand unemployment in the United States and the formula used in the past and the one used now, it would be beneficial to understand the concept of what exactly a discouraged worker is. A discouraged worker is any physically able person with the will to work, but has given up searching for a job because of the perception that there are none to be had. As much as I like President Clinton, it was during his tenure that he removed these people from the unemployment formula. Clinton removed all discouraged workers who had been out of work for more than a year and did not include those people in the data at all. Not only did Clinton shore up his unemployment numbers by omitting these unemployed people, but he also lowered the survey sample size from 60,000 to 50,000 or a 16.7 percent change. Before George W. Bush took office, the survey sample size had reverted to its original sample numbers, presumably to make Clinton look as though he were the one responsible for higher employment numbers and less poverty, leaving Bush to take the blame for economic downturn.
Please don’t get the impression that I’m trying to throw the Bureau of Labor Statistics under the bus, I’m not. They have the monumental task of accounting for statistical data in a manner in which they are directed to collect it. The only problem with the BLS is that they don’t have any way of collecting the kind of data that can be representative of the entire nation, often through no fault of their own. Perhaps the majority of the population isn’t ready to know the real unemployment numbers; maybe the outlook is just too bleak. Sometimes, ignorance is bliss.
False Advertising
Honestly… how many times have you purchased a product, due to a very convincing commercial, so excited about the results they boast… only to be disappointed that you seem to somehow have different results than the beautiful model with perfect hair or the handsome man who's getting all the ladies due to his new body spray?
Advertising can be a businesses' best friend, but it can also ruin you just as quickly. Here enters False Advertising. As a business owner, I would much rather be honest about the product I'm selling, because at the end of the day, what is more important – getting 100 people to buy your product once and be disappointed, or have 50 repeat customers for years to come..?
As a consumer, I am frequently discouraged when I see a convincing commercial about a product that will supposedly make my life easier, or my hair smoother, make my skin better, or make me smell like a movie star.. but at the end of the day – I simply can't understand why a company would advertise in a way to go for the quick buck, taking advantage of the naive consumer, instead of taking the time to actually make a quality product that will keep them coming back for more. Now, speaking as one of the naive consumers out there, I have a vested interest in improving the market and what it provides. I'm saddened by the loss of trust that buyers have (something we commonly experience as a business ourselves, when speaking to potential clients). Every deal in the market now seems “too good to be true”. It makes it that much harder for the honest, hardworking businesses to convince the jaded public that they indeed do have a good product that will provide exactly what it promises.
I understand there is no immediate fix to this 'false advertisement'/'lack of trust' problem. Unless folks somehow regain their conscience… it's going to be here for a while. But, I do ask the consumer to try and hold onto your faith. Don't lose it completely. If something sounds too good to be true, as they say, it probably is… but sometimes, just sometimes… a business, service, or product comes along that prides themselves on providing quality. And those are the ones worth listening to. They are the ones worth buying into who deserve your loyalty, respect and repeat business.
Not everyone out there is trying to trick you – but it takes some attention and a good eye to spot the ones who aren’t!
Jumpin’ Jehosaphat Jacksonville Jaguars!
I don't fault Jones-Drew one bit for wanting to renegotiate. He's 27. He's in the prime of his career and a franchise player, playing a position with a very short shelf-life. He's the face of the franchise and receiving mediocre pay. Aside from that, Jacksonville could use more marquis players that spend their careers exclusively in Jacksonville, a la the beloved Fred Taylor. Jacksonville could be the new Mecca for runningbacks the way that Penn State markets themselves as Linebacker U or the way my alma mater, Southern Illinois University markets the defensive effort put forth by their tenacious defense on the basketball court as “Floor Burn U”.
Gene Smith, as general manager, is granted an enormous amount of clemency due to the fact that we have a novice owner, and he can leverage his knowledge and experience in his favor. Not only would releasing or trading MOJO result in poor fan reaction and possibly turnout, but it would change the culture of football in Jacksonville, and that's a very dicey thing to do. Without being too heavy-handed with the econometrics, it makes financial sense to give MOJO the contract extension he seeks (around 4 years with elevated salary and some performance incentives should do). You can even include in the contract that he MUST always appear at mini-camp and other optional team activities.
This blog is meant to be two-fold…shedding light on a flawed advertising campaign, and for me, as a 3rd party to parlay my wisdom to the business public and pray to the football Gods that Gene Smith or other top executives within the Jaguar organization read this and elect to alter their perceptions of the current situation facing our beloved Jaguars. Come what may, I will always be a Jags fan to the end.
“We’re not one at a timin’, We’re MASS communicatin’ . ”
I would like to take Papa John's as my normative example here. Obviously, you can reach any Papa John's by simply showing up to their store and placing an order or making a phone call, but be prepared to hear “Thank you for calling Papa John's. Can you please hold?”. What has the pizza giant done to remedy the situation? Papa John's has maintained a HUGE internet presence. If you were opportunistic enough to sign up for Papa John's internet-based ordering service before the Super Bowl, you got a free large pizza and a 2 liter beverage. The fun doesn't end there, lucky consumer. For every 5 dollars you spend with Papa John's via their web ordering system, you earn 1 “Papa Point”. Once you've accrued 25 of these points, you have just earned yourself a free pizza.
I would like to take this time to say that Papa John's is NOT my favorite pizza, and I don't think it tastes the best of all the options that I have, BUT it IS the MOST CONVENIENT option, and that speaks volumes. I know that every 5th order or so, I can look forward to a free meal. It may seem a bit gimmicky, but this strategy works! Jimmy John's has also streamlined their internet ordering services, complete with boxes that can be checked and drop down menus to customize your sandwich.
When I was in Japan during my tenure in the Navy, everyone delivered, even Subway. It's my stance that everyone SHOULD deliver. Until everyone catches up with that concept, Jimmy John's and Papa John's will be getting my take-out dollars. Who's getting yours? Clearly these companies grasp the concept, “Interact. Don't Interrupt”.
Prophetic Presumptions As It Pertains To Paradigm Shifts
Imagine, if you will, that all the TV shows (past and present), sitcoms, Super Bowls, etc…were all available to you simply by searching for it and pushing play. Now imagine that what I just said is happening on a 60″ flat screen, high-definition TV. Television is going to be dramatically changed forever and in the near future. Internet capable TV's will go from being gimmicky to becoming the norm and exploiting that connectivity to its fullest potential. A prospective service could even charge a monthly fee to use this service, replacing companies like Comcast, unless they too jump aboard.
Do you think it's out of the realm of possibility to eventually have integrated DVR's in your iPhone that would allow you to pause a TV show that you were watching at home and take it with you on the go? Do you remember when all a phone could do was make a phone call? All digital devices are headed toward multi-functionality.
This is a GOOD THING! Consumption of media on the go and on-demand will not only revolutionize the industry from an entertainment standpoint, but it will change the way that companies sell their goods, market their goods, and advertise. With this type of epic paradigm shift on the horizon, your business needs someone that understands all of the facets of digital media and its potential application. Mad Men Marketing has extensive experience with digital media and a comprehensive understanding of e-commerce. Let us MAKE THE FUTURE WORK FOR YOU and keep your business on the cutting edge of digital creativity.